 On The Line -- Issue 670 -- January 18, 2008  Online News and Views of Life in San Benito County with Herman Wrede Published by HollisterOnline.com -- Copyright 1995-2008 HollisterOnline.com
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On The Line -- Issue 670 -- January 18, 2008 Online News and Views of Life in San Benito County with Herman Wrede Published by HollisterOnline.com -- Copyright 1995-2008 HollisterOnline.com
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Every presidential election year generates interest among Americans and the amount depends upon the candidates, the issues, and the times; sometimes a combination of all three.
I was not quite 15 in 1948 when Harry S. Truman, who had succeeded to the presidency upon the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt early in his fourth term, announced he was running to be returned to office. He was a Democrat and faced a Republican-controlled Congress and low popularity ratings throughout the nation. Almost every major poll forecast that he would lose against New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey, the Republican nominee. What is more, a former Democratic vice president, Henry A. Wallace, announced his independent candidacy for the presidency and Strom Thurmond of South Carolina headed a breakaway group of Southerners called the Dixiecrats. In one Southern state Truman was not even on the ballot. The only political figure who seemed to have no doubts about an ultimate Truman victory was Truman himself. His wife, Bess, later acknowledged that she had grave reservations about his ability to carry it off. Truman became dissatisfied with the negative opinion of his chances and decided to carry the campaign to the people. He hit upon the idea of going to most of the 48 states -- this was before Alaska and Hawaii were admitted to the Union -- and chartered a train to do it. In one town after another, the Truman express pulled in and the president addressed the audience from the back of the train before it pulled out again. At one stop someone jocularly cried out, "Give ?em hell, Harry!" and that became the motto of the campaign. Still the pollsters and most of the media, which consisted of radio and newsreels at a time when most Americans did not own a television set, predicted disaster for Truman and the Democrats. But something intangible was beginning to swell. More and more people said of him, "He can't win but you have to admire his spirit," or something similar to it. "Give ?em hell, Harry!" was shouted at every stop and Truman obligingly said he would. The week before election day 60 years ago, most of the media forecast a Republican victory although some newspapers and pollsters acknowledged the race might not be the landslide for Dewey that they had earlier predicted. Life magazine ran a photograph of Dewey on its cover the issue before election with the caption, "Our next president." Truman told reporters that he was confident of victory and not to be taken in by "Republican hype." The night of the election Truman turned in after listening to radio reports that he could not win. He arose the following morning to be greeted by the news that he had won, and the pollsters were confounded. The most memorable picture of his campaign was taken that day with Truman gleefully displaying an early copy of the Chicago Tribune whose banner proclaimed, "Dewey Defeats Truman." For weeks afterward pollsters sifted the results of the election, showing why the president could not possibly win. The election was described as a political miracle and the man in the street was vindicated. Twelve years later the Republicans and Democrats fielded an exciting campaign when Vice President Richard M. Nixon for the GOP and John F. Kennedy for the Democrats ran for the highest political office. Both had served as Naval officers during World War II and both had started their political careers in 1946 in the US. House of Representatives before winning election to the Senate. Nixon was Dwight D. Eisenhower's running mate for two successful races. It was generally acknowledged that Nixon had the advantage, not only because he had been vice president for two terms, but because Kennedy was a Catholic. Only once before had a Catholic run for the White House, Democrat Al Smith, in 1928 and was soundly defeated. Kennedy embraced the controversy rather than evading it and said that his faith would not be a consideration in following the duties of the office but many Americans were privately skeptical; although they said publicly that a candidate's religion should not bar him form the presidency. Nixon at first was mildly patronizing about Kennedy's candidacy because he did not see him as an obstacle to his ambition. But then something happened. The new medium of television, which had grown into a great influence, was put into play. At the televised debates between the two men the audience was caught up in the electrifying performance by Kennedy as he spoke with charm and exuberance, and backed up his statements with solid research. After the first debate, many voters who had been undecided decided in his favor. His opponent dropped the verbal pats on the head and tried to out point him in the debates, where he still came in a distant second. When he started referring to Kennedy's privileged background of money and social position as compared to his own of poor-but-honest boy it was evident that he was slipping in the polls. Many references to Kennedy's faith circulated but failed to set his campaign back. Kennedy was elected and Nixon seemed to be done politically. Kennedy had not yet completed three years in office when he was assassinated. Nixon was not done politically as many people had supposed. For eight years he assisted many Republicans in their race for office and when 1968 rolled around he had enough political capital to win the Republican nomination and the White House. The campaign of 2008 is notable in many ways in that it is the longest so far having begun in early 2007. It is also remarkable for having the first viable woman and black man as candidates in the persons of Democratic senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as well as a former Republican governor, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, as a member of the church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints to run. So far it has been a campaign of surprises with some candidates winning state caucuses or primaries where it was thought they were not particularly strong. One Republican candidate, Ron Paul of Texas, has in several states beaten the man who several months ago was seen as the front-runner, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani. It is still nearly a half year until the political conventions and four months after that until the election but whoever is nominated and whoever wins will depend upon the people, a fact that pollsters often overlook or discount. |
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